GREEN HYDROGEN FINANCING IN UKRAINE: IDIS AS A MARKET-ENABLING DE-RISKING MODEL

Abstract

This article investigates the problem of attracting private investment into green hydrogen projects in Ukraine. Five systemic barriers that preclude classical venture financing are identified: a lengthy preparation cycle (18–36 months), high documentation costs, information asymmetry, regulatory uncertainty, and wartime sovereign risk premium. The author's model of the Institute of State Innovation Support (IDIS) is proposed as a market-enabling de-risking mechanism based on standardised verified packages and a revolving fund. DCF analysis of a 5 MW hydrogen project demonstrates that IDIS raises IRR from 8–12% to 14–18%, NPV from +€0.2m to +€2.1–3.4m (baseline scenario, 12% discount rate), and the probability of attracting venture capital from 15–25% to 45–60%. IDIS achieves operational break-even in year 4–6 without recurring budgetary allocations. The scientific novelty lies in combining a revolving fund with a differentiated guarantee deposit mechanism — the first such model designed for a post-conflict economy with large-scale donor financing.

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